There’s a shadow hanging over the Europe. The ascent of Donald Trump to the White Home has uncovered brewing fragilities inside the continent’s economic system and army prowess. That hasn’t been evident wherever greater than in Germany, the economic powerhouse reeling from two years of detrimental progress.
Now, Germany’s allies, who’ve lived in their very own shadow of Europe’s greatest economic system, are left dealing with questions on their very own survival. That’s most evident in its neighbor to the east: the Czech Republic.
Throughout the large $348 billion Volkswagen group lies Skoda, a quiet success story for the Czech Republic that claims as a lot in regards to the nation’s post-Chilly Conflict ascension because it does about its long-term dangers.
The Czech Republic, also referred to as Czechia, has constructed its post-Chilly Conflict economic system in the identical means Germany did post-reunification: with a concentrate on trade. Manufacturing as a share of GDP has hovered above 20% within the nation for the final 30 years, becoming a member of Germany in bucking the Western pattern of deindustrialization.
A 3rd of Czechia’s exports go to Germany, whereas 20% of its imports come from its closest neighbor.
The ties between the Czech Republic and Germany are greatest exemplified by Skoda, the Czech Republic’s largest firm, which is owned by Germany’s largest firm, Volkswagen.
Skoda’s power
Skoda makes up a big chunk of the large Volkswagen group, which additionally incorporates Audi, Seat, Porsche, and the Volkswagen model itself.
The carmaker raked in €26.5 billion in revenues in 2023, a large 26% improve on 2022, and equal to almost 10% of the Czechian economic system.
If it had been an unbiased firm, Skoda would rank within the high 150 of the Fortune 500 Europe, as one of many high 10 carmakers, and by far the most important Czech firm on the record.
The automaker additionally hasn’t faltered in recent times like its fellow automakers underneath the Volkswagen umbrella. Within the first 9 months of 2024, Skoda elevated working income by almost 35% in contrast with the identical interval in 2023, whereas the Volkswagen group as an entire confronted a ten% decline in income.
The group’s revenue margin within the first 9 months of 2024 of 8.3% additionally places it among the many most worthwhile manufacturers throughout Volkswagen and effectively above the collective group margin of 5.6%.
Skoda is, in line with David Havrlant, chief economist for the Czech Republic at ING, the “golden egg” inside the Volkswagen group, he advised Fortune.
The carmaker’s gross sales are overwhelmingly Europe-focused. Round 9 in 10 of its vehicles had been delivered to Europe in 2023, with the rest going to Asia-Pacific. That seems to have shielded the producer from the fall-off in gross sales skilled by Volkswagen, which constructed its dominance on China’s burgeoning client market, which has gone into reverse in recent times.
Certainly, by way of 2024 Skoda elevated its deliveries by 6.9%, in comparison with the Volkswagen model’s 1.4% decline, reflective of an almost 10% discount in China deliveries final 12 months.
That divergence from Volkswagen speaks extra broadly to a divergence between Czechia and Germany.
The Czech Republic, alongside Germany, struggled by way of 2024, with GDP declining 0.3% within the wake of sanctions on Russian vitality.
But the nation is predicted to rebound quicker than its associate to the West, with progress projections of two.3% in 2025, nearly triple Germany’s projected progress of 0.8%, in line with Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) forecasts.
The Czech economic system has proved extra enticing for companies seeking to increase their footprint. Wages within the nation, for instance, are round half what they’re in Germany, decreasing enter prices.
Its wider inhabitants appears extra content material too.
“I might say that the Czech client is much less depressed than the German client,” Ana Boata, head of financial analysis at Allianz Commerce, advised Fortune.
Home demand is predicted to be an enormous driver of Czech GDP progress this 12 months, reflective of that increased client confidence.
However seemingly unshakeable bonds between Czechia and Germany proceed to threaten the nation’s economic system.
Czechia’s obstacles
Czechia’s manufacturing output has moved in lockstep with Germany’s for the reason that latter’s downturn started in 2022. Each international locations’ PMIs have been in contraction territory for almost three years as producers battle with increased vitality prices and falling demand, inflicting knock-on results to producers downstream.
Ladislav Tyll, a lecturer on the Prague College of Economics and Enterprise, notes that between producers and corporations within the provide chain, the automotive sector in Czechia accounts for round half one million jobs.
“So frankly talking, if something goes mistaken… they’re out of enterprise, and this nation might technically financially collapse,” Tyll advised Fortune.
Each international locations have been battling falling funding, making a barrier to future progress.
“That is actually not good for these economies, and that does not sign something good for the approaching years,” mentioned Tyll.
One among Chezia’s major issues for its manufacturing-heavy economic system is oppressive local weather targets. The nation joined Italy final November in calling for a leisure of the EU’s local weather guidelines that can result in the banning of the sale of carbon-emitting autos by 2035.
Allianz’s Boata says 2025 is a 12 months of transition for carmakers and the economies they occupy. On the one hand, they might want to up their manufacturing of electrical and hybrid autos to adjust to environmental rules. On the opposite, this implies wading into far more aggressive markets beset by low cost Chinese language-made opponents.
“That may even indicate some impression on the turnovers of these Czech suppliers which are mainly interlinked with the German automotive makers, not solely quantity, but additionally value,” says Boata.
ING’s Havrlant writes extensively in regards to the Czech economic system. He says that there are 4 levels of structural disaster a rustic should go by way of earlier than policymakers can step in.
“You need to acknowledge there’s a drawback. Second, it’s important to admit it’s your drawback. Third, it’s important to pressure your self to get throughout that you just wish to do one thing about it. And fourth, you do one thing about it.”
The Czech Republic is someplace earlier than stage three and 4 with regards to its automotive sector, Havrlant says, whereas he thinks Germany is caught at level zero.
Consequently, Havrlant believes the Czech economic system is slowly decoupling itself from Germany.
“Their order books have been dangerous for such a very long time that till now, it was all the time sufficient to attend till issues obtained higher, however that is not the case anymore,” Havrlant mentioned of Czechia and Germany’s relationship.
Political headwinds
The political story in Czechia can also be the identical as in Germany and, more and more, throughout the remainder of Europe.
Like in Germany, elections beckon in 2025, and there’s a equally populist tone to polling in each international locations.
Between Various for Deutschland (AfD) in Germany, Nationwide Rally in France, Brothers of Italy in Italy, and Reform within the U.Okay., Europe’s greatest economies have been rocked by surging assist for far-right political events able to upset the established order.
So follows the equally jingoistic Patriots for Europe, the rebel Cezchian populist occasion set to brush elections later in 2025.
Tyll says the potential victory of Patriots for Europe would possible have a optimistic impression.
As a substitute, it’s Germany’s February elections that pose extra of a threat for Czechia’s economic system.
He worries that the rising affect of the far-right AfD might trigger Volkswagen to focus on job cuts outdoors of Germany, with Skoda’s tens of hundreds of staff a possible goal.
The nation will hope Germany acknowledges the significance of its “golden egg” and the deeper partnership that appears prefer it’s serving Czechia greater than its ally.
Editor’s word: A model of this text first appeared on Fortune.com on January 21, 2025.
This story was initially featured on Fortune.com
