Statistics Canada reported a commerce deficit of $1.5 billion for the month, down sharply from a revised $3.1-billion surplus in January. The drop was pushed by a 5.5% lower in exports, which fell throughout 10 of 11 product classes, together with autos, vitality, metals and lumber. In quantity phrases, exports dropped 5.0%.
The retreat in exports follows a 15.9% surge between September and January that was fuelled by Canadian firms racing to get forward of impending U.S. tariffs, notes CIBC economist Katherine Choose. That “front-running” impact reversed in February, with demand cooling throughout main markets.
“The tariff front-running increase to exports reversed sharply in February,” Choose wrote, noting the drop far exceeded market expectations for a $3.5-billion surplus. “U.S. companies seem to have gathered sufficient stock in prior months, and exports will stay underneath strain consequently.”
Vitality and auto exports fall as imports proceed to rise
Vitality exports fell 6.3% in February, with declines throughout crude oil, pure gasoline, coal and diesel—notably to the U.S. and Panama. Auto exports dropped 8.8%, together with a 15.3% slide in passenger automobiles and lightweight vehicles after January’s two-decade excessive. Almost all have been shipped to the U.S.
Different notable declines included metals (-6.6%), forestry merchandise (-10.8%) and pulp and paper (-13.0%). Plane exports have been the exception, up 29.6% on stronger U.S. jet deliveries.
Imports rose 0.8% for the fifth straight month, led by motor autos (+5.8%), equipment (+3.1%) and vitality (+5.2%). In quantity phrases, imports have been flat. StatCan famous the figures embrace estimates attributable to delayed information tied to the CBSA’s new CARM system.
Commerce with the U.S. narrows
Canada’s exports to the USA dropped 3.6%, or $2.1 billion, from January’s report excessive, whereas imports rose 2.5%. That pushed Canada’s commerce surplus with the U.S. right down to $10.6 billion from $13.7 billion a month earlier.
Exports to nations aside from the U.S. fell much more sharply, dropping 12.4%, with notable declines to the UK (unwrought gold) and Germany. Imports from non-U.S. nations have been down 2.0%, however Canada’s commerce deficit with these companions widened to a report $12.1 billion.
Outlook stays cautious
Regardless of Canada avoiding reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports, Choose warned that beforehand introduced U.S. tariffs on key Canadian sectors—comparable to autos, metal, and lumber—will proceed to weigh on future export demand.
“Furthermore, a better efficient tariff fee on U.S. imports as an entire will work to sluggish U.S. and world progress and can weigh on export demand for Canada forward,” she added.
BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes additionally expects the influence of tariffs to accentuate in March and April. Metal, aluminum and auto exports shall be immediately affected, whereas different sectors might speed up efforts to fulfill USMCA guidelines to keep away from penalties.
“Count on extraordinarily risky commerce and different associated information over the subsequent few months as companies alter/adapt to the tariff regime the U.S. has put in place,” he wrote.
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Final modified: April 3, 2025
