The thought behind the previous adage “as goes January, so goes the yr” is that this: if the market closes up in January, will probably be a superb yr; if the market closes down in January, will probably be a foul yr. In truth, it is without doubt one of the extra dependable of the market saws, having been proper nearly 9 occasions out of 10 since 1950. Final yr, January noticed beneficial properties of seven.9 p.c for the S&P 500 (one of the best January since 1987), predicting an excellent yr. Certainly, that’s simply what we received.
In truth, even when this indicator has missed, it has often supplied some helpful perception into market efficiency in the course of the yr. In 2018, for instance, the January impact predicted a robust market. And it was robust—till we received the worst December since 1931 and the markets pulled again right into a loss, solely to get well instantly and resume the upward climb. Fallacious in accordance with the calendar, proper over a barely longer interval.
Wall Road “Knowledge”?
I’m typically skeptical of this type of Wall Road knowledge, however right here there may be no less than a believable basis. January is when buyers largely reposition their portfolios after year-end, when beneficial properties and efficiency for the prior yr are booked. So, the market outcomes actually do replicate how buyers, as a bunch, are seeing the approaching yr. As investing outcomes are decided in important half by investor expectations, January can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is why this indicator is price taking a look at.
Wanting Forward
So, what does this indicator imply for this yr? First, U.S. outperformance—and the outperformance of tech and development shares—is more likely to proceed. Rising markets have been down by nearly 5 p.c in January, and international developed markets have been down by greater than 2 p.c. U.S. markets, in contrast, have been down by lower than 1 p.c for the Dow and by solely 4 bps for the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq was up by simply over 2 p.c. In case you consider on this indicator, then keep the course and concentrate on U.S. tech, as that’s what will outperform in 2020.
The issue with that line of pondering is that what drove this month’s outcomes was a basic outlier occasion: the coronavirus. This virus, or extra precisely the measures taken by governments to regulate its unfold, has considerably slowed the economies of a number of rising markets straight (China and most of Southeast Asia), and it’s beginning to sluggish the developed markets by way of provide chain results. The U.S., with a comparatively small a part of its provide chains affected thus far and with minimal direct results, has not been as uncovered—however that development may not proceed.
In different phrases, what the January impact is telling us this time probably has far more to do with the specifics of the viral outbreak than with the worldwide financial system or markets—and should subsequently be much less dependable than up to now.
The Actual Takeaway
What we are able to take away, nevertheless, is that within the face of an sudden and probably important danger, the U.S. financial system and markets proceed to be fairly resilient. That resilience will assist if the outbreak will get worse, and it’ll level to quicker development if the outbreak subsides. Both method, the U.S. seems to be much less uncovered to dangers and higher positioned to journey them out once they do occur.
Which, if you concentrate on it, factors to the identical conclusion because the January impact would. Count on volatility, however not a big pullback right here within the U.S. over 2020, with the prospect of better-than-expected development and returns. And this isn’t a foul conclusion to achieve.
Editor’s Notice: The unique model of this text appeared on the Impartial Market Observer.
